Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Rudy Giuliani: 'Stats' Solve Problems
NewsMax - Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani has a ready answer for the nation's woes: statistics.
Iraq-stat. Border-stat. Energy-stat. In numerous campaign appearances and debates, the word "stat" - short for statistics - has become a catchword for the former New York mayor, who argues that his use of statistics to fight urban crime can help solve national problems such as illegal immigration and port security.
Crime dropped by half while Giuliani was mayor of New York in the 1990s, a fact he attributes to a system of mapping crime patterns and making police commanders responsible for reducing crime.
Called Compstat - short for computerized statistics - the program was copied throughout the New York government and by several other cities.
"You get what you measure," Giuliani said Tuesday in Bedford, N.H. "If you don't have measurement standards, government is out of control. I imposed these measurement standards on 23, 24, 25 city agencies. In almost every case, it meant major change in their ability to deliver performance."
If elected president, Giuliani wants a similar system for Washington, with "Border-stat" to stop illegal immigration and "Terror-stat" for homeland security. Details are thin on how such programs would work, but Giuliani said a "Border-stat" program, for example, might analyze where people illegally cross the border and deploy border patrol agents to react.
An "Iraq-stat" program might look at how many children are going to school, how many factories are open and people going back to work, so that U.S. authorities could respond accordingly.
Some experts caution that a numbers-driven program can't fix all the nation's ills and that Washington has programs to hold agencies and departments accountable.
In New York, experts agree that the Compstat program helped curb crime, although they disagree over how much credit Compstat deserves.
"I'm not sold," said Andrew Karmen, sociology professor at City University of New York's John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
Other factors contributed to the decline such as an improved economy, an influx of immigrants who were generally law-abiding, and more criminals serving jail time. Karmen also cited open admissions at New York City's public colleges, which provided an education to more young people.
The state and city also sent resources and money to the department before Giuliani took office.
But Karmen acknowledged that Giuliani has never claimed Compstat deserves all the credit.
"He always argued for smarter and tougher policing," Karmen said, mentioning the New York Police Department's zero tolerance approach, arresting people even for misdemeanors such as turnstile jumping. Those small-time arrests sometimes helped police track criminals responsible for murder and other major crimes.
Credit for the drop in crime has historically gone to Giuliani as well as his former police commissioner, William J. Bratton. The two clashed and Bratton was ousted after receiving national attention for the city's turnaround.
Giuliani and Bratton, now chief of the Los Angeles Police Department, have reconciled, and Giuliani has been mentioning Bratton in speeches. At a speech last week in Washington, Giuliani told how Bratton's deputy, Jack Maple, came up with the idea by collecting crime statistics by precinct, writing the numbers on napkins and spreading them out on bar tables.
Eventually, the system evolved into a sophisticated, up-to-the-minute database of crime by area, and local commanders had to justify their crime rates at regular meetings.
Talking about crime plays to Giuliani's strengths, said Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster.
"Republicans are known for their tough, take-no-prisoners attitude in combatting crime, and Giuliani has that image and has that record, to a large degree," Fabrizio said. But, he said, Giuliani could weaken his image with the bureaucratic-sounding "Iraq-stat" and "Border-stat."
"People aren't going to spend a lot of time focusing on what the details of the plan are or how he did it," Fabrizio said. "They know Rudy Giuliani drove down crime in New York City. If accountability is the theme, they should call it that. Taking too bureaucratic an approach actually dilutes his strength."
Giuliani says he talks about Compstat because people like to hear about "doing the impossible."
"If you think it's impossible to control the borders, if you think it's impossible to make sure America is secure from terrorism - people thought it was just as impossible to dramatically reduce welfare in New York City in 1992 and 1993," he said.
"We used a Jobstat program and we reduced welfare by 640,000 people. That is larger than most cities in the United States," he said.
NewsMax - Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani has a ready answer for the nation's woes: statistics.
Iraq-stat. Border-stat. Energy-stat. In numerous campaign appearances and debates, the word "stat" - short for statistics - has become a catchword for the former New York mayor, who argues that his use of statistics to fight urban crime can help solve national problems such as illegal immigration and port security.
Crime dropped by half while Giuliani was mayor of New York in the 1990s, a fact he attributes to a system of mapping crime patterns and making police commanders responsible for reducing crime.
Called Compstat - short for computerized statistics - the program was copied throughout the New York government and by several other cities.
"You get what you measure," Giuliani said Tuesday in Bedford, N.H. "If you don't have measurement standards, government is out of control. I imposed these measurement standards on 23, 24, 25 city agencies. In almost every case, it meant major change in their ability to deliver performance."
If elected president, Giuliani wants a similar system for Washington, with "Border-stat" to stop illegal immigration and "Terror-stat" for homeland security. Details are thin on how such programs would work, but Giuliani said a "Border-stat" program, for example, might analyze where people illegally cross the border and deploy border patrol agents to react.
An "Iraq-stat" program might look at how many children are going to school, how many factories are open and people going back to work, so that U.S. authorities could respond accordingly.
Some experts caution that a numbers-driven program can't fix all the nation's ills and that Washington has programs to hold agencies and departments accountable.
In New York, experts agree that the Compstat program helped curb crime, although they disagree over how much credit Compstat deserves.
"I'm not sold," said Andrew Karmen, sociology professor at City University of New York's John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
Other factors contributed to the decline such as an improved economy, an influx of immigrants who were generally law-abiding, and more criminals serving jail time. Karmen also cited open admissions at New York City's public colleges, which provided an education to more young people.
The state and city also sent resources and money to the department before Giuliani took office.
But Karmen acknowledged that Giuliani has never claimed Compstat deserves all the credit.
"He always argued for smarter and tougher policing," Karmen said, mentioning the New York Police Department's zero tolerance approach, arresting people even for misdemeanors such as turnstile jumping. Those small-time arrests sometimes helped police track criminals responsible for murder and other major crimes.
Credit for the drop in crime has historically gone to Giuliani as well as his former police commissioner, William J. Bratton. The two clashed and Bratton was ousted after receiving national attention for the city's turnaround.
Giuliani and Bratton, now chief of the Los Angeles Police Department, have reconciled, and Giuliani has been mentioning Bratton in speeches. At a speech last week in Washington, Giuliani told how Bratton's deputy, Jack Maple, came up with the idea by collecting crime statistics by precinct, writing the numbers on napkins and spreading them out on bar tables.
Eventually, the system evolved into a sophisticated, up-to-the-minute database of crime by area, and local commanders had to justify their crime rates at regular meetings.
Talking about crime plays to Giuliani's strengths, said Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster.
"Republicans are known for their tough, take-no-prisoners attitude in combatting crime, and Giuliani has that image and has that record, to a large degree," Fabrizio said. But, he said, Giuliani could weaken his image with the bureaucratic-sounding "Iraq-stat" and "Border-stat."
"People aren't going to spend a lot of time focusing on what the details of the plan are or how he did it," Fabrizio said. "They know Rudy Giuliani drove down crime in New York City. If accountability is the theme, they should call it that. Taking too bureaucratic an approach actually dilutes his strength."
Giuliani says he talks about Compstat because people like to hear about "doing the impossible."
"If you think it's impossible to control the borders, if you think it's impossible to make sure America is secure from terrorism - people thought it was just as impossible to dramatically reduce welfare in New York City in 1992 and 1993," he said.
"We used a Jobstat program and we reduced welfare by 640,000 people. That is larger than most cities in the United States," he said.
