Thursday, July 6, 2006
Bush Changing on Immigration
The impasse between President Bush and House Republicans regarding illegal immigration may be on the way to a settlement that would give both parties what they want and perhaps get the explosive issue off the table before the November congressional elections.
While Karl Rove, the White House chief political strategist, and White House Press Secretary Tony Snow insist that President Bush remains determined to get a comprehensive immigration reform bill through Congress, there are multiple signs now that the White House may give in to House demands to deal first with the problem of U.S. border security.
According to Wednesday's New York Times, Republicans both inside the White House and outside say the president is open to the idea of an enforcement-first approach, which would leave his guest worker proposal pending, but which would be triggered after the immediate border problem is solved.
"He thinks that this notion that you can have triggers is something we should take a close look at, and we are," Candi Wolff, the White House director of legislative affairs, told the Times. Wolff, the Times reported, was referring to the idea that guest worker and citizenship programs would be triggered when specific border security goals had been met, a process that could take two years.
"The willingness to consider a phased-in situation, that's a pretty big concession from where they were at," Representative Tom Cole, R-Okla., a close associate of Bush. "It's a suggestion they are willing to negotiate."
Added to these signals that the president is modifying his compressive reform-bill-only approach last week, the White House invited a leading conservative proponent of the enforcement-first bill, Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., to the Oval Office to discuss his ideas with president and Vice President Dick Cheney. According to Wolff, the president found the Pence plan "pretty intriguing."
In an interview Tuesday with the Times, Pence said the president used precisely those words in their talk, adding that that the meeting was scheduled to last 10 or 20 minutes but went on for 40, and that the president "was quite adamant throughout the meeting to make the point that he hoped I would be encouraged."
Like the majority of his House GOP colleagues, Pence views Bush immigration plan as veiled amnesty.
Under his plan, the Times explained, illegal immigrants - even those in the United States for decades - would be required to leave the country briefly before returning, with proper documentation, to participate in a guest worker system. Private employment agencies would set up shop overseas to process applications. After six years in a guest worker program, an immigrant would be allowed to apply for citizenship.
"I believe it's amnesty if you can get right with the law by paying a fine, but never have to go home," Mr. Pence said, referring to the Senate Bill's provisions that allow illegal immigrants to pay a fine but remain in the U.S. on a path to citizenship.
But one Republican close to the White House told the Times the president would ultimately abandon the idea of a path to citizenship.
Despite the signals, Cole is doubtful that the standoff will be eliminated before November.
"Our people would like to have some sort of solution," Cole told the Times, "but my instinct tells me this is much more likely to be a post-November, or a 2007 kind of deal than it is to happen between now and then."
That could keep the pot boiling and spilling over on Election Day, making immigration the key issue and hurting anyone viewed as soft on the issue of border security.
The impasse between President Bush and House Republicans regarding illegal immigration may be on the way to a settlement that would give both parties what they want and perhaps get the explosive issue off the table before the November congressional elections.
While Karl Rove, the White House chief political strategist, and White House Press Secretary Tony Snow insist that President Bush remains determined to get a comprehensive immigration reform bill through Congress, there are multiple signs now that the White House may give in to House demands to deal first with the problem of U.S. border security.
According to Wednesday's New York Times, Republicans both inside the White House and outside say the president is open to the idea of an enforcement-first approach, which would leave his guest worker proposal pending, but which would be triggered after the immediate border problem is solved.
"He thinks that this notion that you can have triggers is something we should take a close look at, and we are," Candi Wolff, the White House director of legislative affairs, told the Times. Wolff, the Times reported, was referring to the idea that guest worker and citizenship programs would be triggered when specific border security goals had been met, a process that could take two years.
"The willingness to consider a phased-in situation, that's a pretty big concession from where they were at," Representative Tom Cole, R-Okla., a close associate of Bush. "It's a suggestion they are willing to negotiate."
Added to these signals that the president is modifying his compressive reform-bill-only approach last week, the White House invited a leading conservative proponent of the enforcement-first bill, Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., to the Oval Office to discuss his ideas with president and Vice President Dick Cheney. According to Wolff, the president found the Pence plan "pretty intriguing."
In an interview Tuesday with the Times, Pence said the president used precisely those words in their talk, adding that that the meeting was scheduled to last 10 or 20 minutes but went on for 40, and that the president "was quite adamant throughout the meeting to make the point that he hoped I would be encouraged."
Like the majority of his House GOP colleagues, Pence views Bush immigration plan as veiled amnesty.
Under his plan, the Times explained, illegal immigrants - even those in the United States for decades - would be required to leave the country briefly before returning, with proper documentation, to participate in a guest worker system. Private employment agencies would set up shop overseas to process applications. After six years in a guest worker program, an immigrant would be allowed to apply for citizenship.
"I believe it's amnesty if you can get right with the law by paying a fine, but never have to go home," Mr. Pence said, referring to the Senate Bill's provisions that allow illegal immigrants to pay a fine but remain in the U.S. on a path to citizenship.
But one Republican close to the White House told the Times the president would ultimately abandon the idea of a path to citizenship.
Despite the signals, Cole is doubtful that the standoff will be eliminated before November.
"Our people would like to have some sort of solution," Cole told the Times, "but my instinct tells me this is much more likely to be a post-November, or a 2007 kind of deal than it is to happen between now and then."
That could keep the pot boiling and spilling over on Election Day, making immigration the key issue and hurting anyone viewed as soft on the issue of border security.
